Bitcoin’s stagnation around $110,000 this November has left traders and analysts puzzled. Despite global liquidity expanding as central banks ease policies to counter slowing growth, Bitcoin typically the first asset to react to looser monetary conditions has remained subdued. Rising ETF outflows, weakening institutional demand, and the Federal Reserve’s persistent hawkish tone have dampened sentiment, leaving Bitcoin’s price action caught between the push for monetary easing and cautious investor behavior.
Key takeaways
• Bitcoin hovers near $110K, consolidating after Uptober’s rally amid ETF outflows of nearly $700M.
• Global M2 money supply has expanded 8% in 2025, led by liquidity injections from the U.S., China, and Europe.
• Despite two rate cuts, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook has muted market confidence.
• Over $8B in short positions could be liquidated if Bitcoin breaks above $117K, marking a potential bullish reversal.
• The broader liquidity uptrend remains intact, supporting Bitcoin’s long-term growth trajectory.
Bitcoin ETF outflows signal institutional caution
Bitcoin ETFs saw $470.7 million in net outflows, led by FBTC and ARKB, while Ethereum ETFs lost $81.4 million, ending months of steady inflows that had driven Bitcoin to $124K in August. Glassnode attributes the reversal to selling pressure from traditional finance investors and weakening institutional demand, as funds reduce exposure ahead of tighter liquidity and year-end adjustments. The withdrawals came right after the Fed’s second rate cut, but its hawkish December outlook curbed optimism, signaling that traders view the cuts as defensive rather than a true policy pivot.
Rate cuts without confidence: The Fed’s hawkish paradox
Bitcoin’s weak performance reflects a policy contradiction at the Federal Reserve rate cuts hint at support, but Powell’s cautious tone signals uncertainty. This “hawkish easing” has left markets indecisive, limiting appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin. The hesitation was evident on Friday as both stocks and Bitcoin fell, with Bitcoin dipping below $106,500 before a short-lived rebound to $111,500, showing traders remain on the sidelines awaiting clearer macro signals. Currently, Bitcoin has plummeted to $103,500 causing panic to the market.
Liquidity and lag: Why Bitcoin hasn’t reacted yet
Bitcoin’s muted reaction may simply reflect timing, not weakness. Historically, liquidity expansion first fuels traditional risk assets – equities, bonds, and corporate credit – before shifting into high-beta instruments like Bitcoin.
This pattern has held in multiple cycles:
- Following the COVID-19 stimulus in 2020, Bitcoin lagged behind equity inflows by roughly four months before surging past $ 60,000.
- During the 2021 tightening-to-easing pivot, Bitcoin followed global M2 growth only after stock market valuations had stabilised.
In 2025, the same dynamic appears to be unfolding. Liquidity is increasing, but institutional portfolios are still adjusting to macro uncertainty. Bitcoin’s next move likely depends on when, not whether, that liquidity filters into the crypto market.
Breakout or breakdown: What defines the next phase
The next few weeks could determine whether Bitcoin’s cooling is a healthy reset or the first sign of an end to the bull run.
Price chart of Bitcoin Source: CoinMarketCap
- Bullish case: Liquidity expansion continues, ETF outflows stabilise, and Bitcoin breaks $117K – unleashing a wave of short covering and renewed institutional demand.
- Bearish case: Fed communication remains hawkish, TradFi investors maintain risk aversion, and Bitcoin tests support around $100K–$102K before stabilising.
December’s Federal Reserve meeting may serve as the key trigger for direction – and could set the tone for Bitcoin’s performance through 2026.
Bitcoin Investment implications November 2025
For active traders, Bitcoin’s current consolidation offers tactical opportunities near $105K–$110K support zones. However, volatility remains tied to macro headlines, especially upcoming Fed communications and liquidity data.
For longer-term investors, the takeaway is clearer: global liquidity is increasing, debt remains unsustainable, and central banks continue to prioritise growth over austerity. In this environment, Bitcoin’s cooling may represent a delayed, not denied, response – positioning it as one of the few assets likely to benefit once liquidity fully transmits into markets.
Disclaimer: The performance figures quoted are not a guarantee of future performance.
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