On-chain data reveals Bitcoin demand is surging as October 2025 begins, with monthly spot demand growing by 62,000 BTC since July and whale wallets expanding positions at an annual rate of 331,000 BTC. This accumulation has pushed Bitcoin past $118,000, reinforcing the historical ‘Uptober’ pattern of strong Q4 rallies.
As Bitcoin enters Q4 2025, analysts are revising their Bitcoin price predictions for 2025 upward, with projections ranging from $150K to $200K by year-end. ETF inflows are also accelerating, with U.S.-listed funds adding over 200,000 BTC in Q4 2024 and expected to show similar strength this quarter.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin surged past $118,000 at the start of October, confirming Uptober’s bullish reputation.
- Spot demand is rising steadily, supported by ETF inflows and whale accumulation.
- The U.S. government shutdown delays economic data and could reshape Fed policy expectations.
- Rate cut odds for October stand at ~95%, fuelling demand for risk assets.
- Analysts project resistance at $122K and $138K, with upside potential to $150K–$200K by year-end.
Bitcoin Q4 outlook: October surge backed by historical strength
Bitcoin has long shown a seasonal tendency to perform best in Q4, with October frequently marking the start of major bull phases.
Source: Lookonchain
Traders call this “Uptober,” a month when Bitcoin historically delivers above-average returns. In 2025, that narrative is reinforced by a strong September close (+5.35%), which on-chain analysts point out often precedes a bullish October.
The rally is also occurring alongside a broader move into safe-haven assets. Gold has reached fresh all-time highs above $3,900, while the Nasdaq and other U.S. indices show resilience. Bitcoin’s correlation to gold – historically with a 40-day lag – appears to be tightening, strengthening its case as “digital gold” during uncertain times.
Bitcoin price prediction 2025
Analysts are increasingly optimistic about Uptober’s trajectory:
- CryptoQuant projects a range of $160K–$200K by year-end if demand persists.
- Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin could reach $500K by 2028, citing declining volatility and broadening investor access.
- Fundstrat’s Tom Lee and Bitwise also see $200K as achievable in 2025.
Still, near-term risks remain. A prolonged U.S. government shutdown could weigh on sentiment, and equities are showing weakness in premarket trading (S&P 500 futures –0.58%, Dow –0.52%, Nasdaq –0.67%).
Disclaimer:
The performance figures quoted are not a guarantee of future performance.
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